In a world where economic data and policy changes unfold like daily episodes of a soap opera, the U.S. financial markets are once again at the center of the storm. Our good friend, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, has once again performed a "dove dance" in public, leaving people both amazed and puzzled. This grand drama, a mix of expectations, speculations, and actual data, not only leaves investors scratching their heads but also makes even the casual observer feel that the financial markets are more exciting than a soap opera.

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A "Rate Cut Show" Long in the Making

On the evening of July 2, 2024, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and his international counterparts took the stage at what seemed to be an ordinary central bank forum. Powell's speech this time seemed to deliberately avoid the market's most pressing question of "whether to cut rates in September." He hinted at progress in inflation but stated that for a rate cut, we need to see more and require more "confidence" before taking action. It sounded like he was saying, "Everyone, be patient, I'm also waiting for the right moment."

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Market Reaction: A Wild Ride

Following Powell's speech, the financial markets' reaction on the night of July 2 could be described as a "roller coaster." The U.S. dollar index fluctuated, and spot gold and silver prices surged and then fell, behaving like friends who had just downed a Red Bull, excited one moment and then feeling let down the next. As for the U.S. stock market, it was a "changing of the guard" scenario, with the three major indices showing different performances after the opening. The Dow Jones Industrial Average initially surged and then fell back, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 opened lower and then experienced strong volatility. Investors in the stock market might need to keep some motion sickness medicine on hand.

A Major Reversal in Employment Data

(The text seems to be cut off, and the rest of the translation is not provided.)As the market was still deciphering Powell's words, at 10 p.m. on July 3rd, the U.S. Department of Labor dropped a "small surprise." The number of job vacancies in May rebounded slightly from the previous month's low, suggesting that the U.S. labor market is not as pessimistic as imagined. This news, once released, seemed to inject a stimulant into the previously somewhat depressed market sentiment.

How did the global market react?

It's not just the United States; the global financial market is also playing various roles in this grand play of uncertainty. From the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index, from traditional industrial metals to the future of electric vehicles, asset prices are fluctuating across the board, and investors might need a thick notebook to keep track of these changes.

Powell's Subtle Dance

Back to our protagonist, Powell, his dance is truly enigmatic. On one hand, inflation seems to be under control, filling the market with expectations for a rate cut; on the other hand, he continually emphasizes caution, as if reminding everyone: "Don't rush, there are still risks." This ambiguous stance makes investors who want to seize opportunities feel both excited and apprehensive.