It is projected that the industrial value-added growth rate will increase by 5% year-on-year in August. The national manufacturing PMI for August fell to 49.1%, indicating a continued slowdown below the line. Among the main sub-indicators, both supply and demand have declined, with raw material and ex-factory prices moving downward, while inventory of raw materials has decreased and that of finished products has increased. Looking at the high-frequency data from mid-August, the year-on-year growth rate of coal consumption by the six major power generation groups has increased, but the year-on-year growth rate of steel production by sample steel mills has significantly declined, the start-up rate of semi-steel tires in the automotive industry has slowed down, and the start-up rate of the chemical industry chain has seen more declines than increases. Overall, the prosperity of industrial production continues to slow down. We estimate that the year-on-year growth rate of industrial value-added in August will drop to 5%.

It is expected that the cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment will be 3.5% year-on-year in August. In July, the cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment slightly decreased to 3.6%, and upon closer examination of the three major types of investment, the cumulative growth rates of manufacturing, infrastructure investment, and real estate investment have all slowed down. We anticipate that the investment growth rate may slightly decline in August. Firstly, the issuance progress of special bonds in August remains slow, and from the high-frequency data related to infrastructure, the start-up rate of petroleum asphalt is still at a historical low for the same period, suggesting that infrastructure investment may slightly decrease; secondly, with the continuous optimization of real estate control policies in various regions, real estate investment may fluctuate at a low level; finally, supported by policies promoting large-scale equipment upgrades, the growth rate of manufacturing investment is expected to remain stable. We estimate that the cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment in August may stabilize at 3.5%.

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It is projected that the total retail sales of consumer goods will grow by 2.1% year-on-year in August. As various policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption take effect, consumer demand continues to recover. In July, the growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.7 percentage points to 2.7%, and the decline in retail sales above the designated quota narrowed by 0.5 percentage points to -0.1%. Looking at the categories, the growth rate of necessary consumer goods fell to 3.6%, while the decline in the growth rate of optional consumer goods narrowed to -1.9%. In the first 25 days of August, the year-on-year growth rate of passenger car retail sales by the Passenger Car Association rose to 5%, possibly driven by the need to buy cars for children's school transportation before the start of the school season in August. However, according to the Passenger Car Association's forecast, the heat in the passenger car market in August will continue to be moderate, with the retail of narrow-sense passenger cars expected to decrease by 4.4% year-on-year. In addition, as the high-temperature weather in some areas gradually dissipates, the heat in the home appliance sales market is also gradually decreasing. Considering the high base of the same period last year, we estimate that the year-on-year growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods in August will fall to 2.1%.

It is expected that exports will grow by 8% year-on-year in August, and imports will grow by 4.5%. In August, the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) recorded a month-on-month growth rate of -1.9%, while the export growth rate of South Korea in the first 20 days of August increased significantly, reflecting a warming of foreign trade activities. China's export prospects continue to be positive, but may be temporarily disturbed in the short term. Firstly, the United States has started a restocking cycle, but the U.S. economy is showing signs of fatigue, with manufacturing and consumption deteriorating, which hampers the strength of restocking and makes the slope more gentle. Secondly, the recent global manufacturing PMI has resonated and declined, which may slow down China's exports to developing countries. Lastly, looking ahead, under the influence of high base numbers from the same period last year, coupled with increased fluctuations in global economic growth, export growth may be under pressure, but the annual growth rate is not bad, and it may also shift from being a drag on economic growth last year to a driving force. We estimate that the year-on-year growth rate of exports in August will continue to rise to 8%. In August, the PMI import index slightly decreased to 46.8%. Since August, the price of iron ore has fallen, and international oil prices have slightly decreased. We estimate that the import growth rate in August will fall to 4.5%, and the trade surplus will be about 80.2 billion US dollars.

It is expected that new credit will be 1.1 trillion yuan, new social financing will be 3.4 trillion yuan, and the M2 growth rate will be 6.5% in August. In July 2024, the increase in the social financing scale was 770.8 billion yuan, the second-lowest level for the same period since 2017 (only higher than the same period last year), and the year-on-year increase turned from a decrease to an increase of 234.2 billion yuan; new RMB loans were 260 billion yuan, and the year-on-year decrease narrowed to 85.9 billion yuan. In July, the acceleration of bond financing led to an increase in the social financing scale, while RMB loans remained the main drag. Since late August, the bill rate has fallen, which may reflect that credit allocation is still relatively weak. We estimate that the scale of new RMB loans in August will still not reach the level of the same period last year, continuing to drag on social financing. However, since August, the issuance of government bonds has accelerated, especially the monthly net financing scale of government bonds has reached a new high, and the net financing scale of government bonds is more than 60 billion yuan more than the same period last year, supporting the year-on-year increase in social financing in August. We estimate that the scale of new credit in August will be about 1.1 trillion yuan, the scale of new social financing will be around 3.4 trillion yuan, and the M2 growth rate will rise to 6.5%.

It is expected that the CPI will grow by 0.8% year-on-year in August, and the PPI will grow by -0.9%. Since August, the prices of agricultural products have continued to rise, with the prices of meat, eggs, vegetables, and fruits continuing to increase. Coupled with the peak summer travel season boosting travel-related consumption, we estimate that the year-on-year growth rate of the CPI in August will rise to 0.8%. Since August, the year-on-year growth rate of finished product prices in industries led by steel and chemicals has shown a downward trend, international crude oil prices have also decreased, and in addition, the performance of real estate and infrastructure is temporarily weak, and extreme weather has also had a certain impact on construction. We estimate that the year-on-year growth rate of the PPI in August may decline to -0.9%.