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Just now, the Japanese and Korean stock markets plummeted! The "Black Swan" stri

69 Comments 2024-08-17

On the morning of September 4th, the Nikkei 225 index opened down by 1.67%; the South Korean KOSPI index fell by 2.8%. After opening lower, the Nikkei 225 index's decline rapidly widened, and as of the time of writing, the drop has expanded to 3%.

Last night, stock markets in Europe and America plummeted.

The three major U.S. stock indices all closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 1.51%, the Nasdaq Composite down by 3.26%, and the S&P 500 index down by 2.12%.

In addition, the "fear index" VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) closed at 20.72, having risen to 21.99 at one point during the session. Prior to this, since August 14th, the index had not broken through the 20 level.

Large-cap technology stocks fell across the board, with NVIDIA falling more than 9%, marking the largest single-day drop since late April, and its market capitalization evaporated by $278.9 billion overnight (approximately equivalent to 1.9862 trillion yuan). In terms of news, the United States has escalated antitrust investigations in the AI computing field, and NVIDIA has received a subpoena from the Department of Justice. Affected by the rare downgrade to "underweight" by Wells Fargo, Boeing closed down more than 7%.

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Google and Netflix fell more than 3%, and Apple fell more than 2%. The semiconductor, precious metals, energy, and banking sectors saw the largest declines.

Most popular Chinese concept stocks fell, with the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index down by 0.86%. Futu Holdings and NetEase fell more than 3%, and iQIYI and Li Auto fell more than 2%.

However, Chinese concept electric vehicle stocks rose against the trend, with XPeng Motors up nearly 4% and NIO up more than 2%.

Additionally, major European stock indices also fell collectively. The French CAC 40 index fell by 0.93%, the German DAX 30 index fell by 0.97%, and the UK's FTSE 100 index fell by 0.78%.

European Central Bank Governing Council member Simkus stated that the probability of a rate cut in October is quite small, but there are many reasons to support a rate cut in September. European Central Bank Governing Council member Nagel stated that he will not commit in advance whether he will vote in favor of a rate cut in September.Concerns of US Economic Recession Resurface

In terms of news, a "black swan" event last night has once again sparked global concerns about a recession in the US economy, leading to a sharp drop in US stocks.

Analysts say that economic data released at the beginning of the trading day showed that US manufacturing activity shrank for the fifth consecutive month in August, intensifying investors' concerns about a recession in the US economy and putting pressure on US stocks.

At the start of last night's trading, a report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) stated that the US manufacturing index for August rose by 0.4 points to 47.2, below the expected 47.5. This data has been below 50 for five consecutive months, indicating a continued contraction in manufacturing industry activity.

Furthermore, the report also showed that the production indicator in the US for August has been declining for five consecutive months, reaching the lowest level since May 2020. The new orders indicator fell to a 15-month low, and export orders shrank at the fastest pace since the beginning of this year.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: "The further decline in PMI data indicates that the drag on the economy from the manufacturing sector has intensified in the middle of the third quarter. Forward-looking indicators suggest that this drag is likely to intensify in the coming months."

The US August ISM manufacturing index is the first important indicator of the US economy to be released this week, and the market is paying close attention to it to assess whether it has released more signals of a soft landing for the US economy, and it may also have an impact on the Federal Reserve's September decision.

Traders expect the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by more than two percentage points over the next 12 months. Ian Lyngen from BMO Capital said that recent concerns about rising unemployment rates will make traders "nervous" until Friday's employment data is released.

At the beginning of August, US stocks also experienced a significant sell-off. Concerns about the US economy falling into a recession, as well as hedge funds closing their yen carry trades, led to a sharp drop in the stock market at the beginning of August. The S&P 500 index fell by more than 7% at one point before recovering.

This Friday, the US Department of Labor will release the employment situation report. Brian Malburry, a client portfolio manager at Zacks Investment Management, said, "Can we really achieve a soft landing? Or will we get a non-farm report showing a significant increase in the unemployment rate?"In early September, the People's Bank of China's open market operations showed a "minimal" level. On September 2nd and 3rd, the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations for 7 days with 3.5 billion yuan and 1.2 billion yuan respectively, achieving a net withdrawal of 93.88 billion yuan over the two days. Industry experts analyzed that at the beginning of the month, the market's liquidity was relatively loose, and the central bank's open market operations with a net withdrawal were in line with expectations. Subsequently, when there is a significant liquidity gap, the central bank may regulate liquidity by purchasing government bonds, making it a regular practice. In addition, as the policy orientations of major global central banks gradually adjust, the impact of the external environment on China's monetary policy is expected to decrease, and the room for interest rate cuts may further open up.

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